开云手机版

　　一、报告题目
　　China’s Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Time-varying Parameter VARs with Stochastic Volatility
　　二、报告人
　　李雪，Southwestern University of Finance and Economics 副教授，研究方向为Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Macro Finance, Labor Economics
　　三、报告时间
　　2016年10月13日下午4:00
　　四、报告地点
　　经济开云手机版院会议室（知新楼B321）
　　五、报告摘要
　　This paper utilizes simple constant-parameter VARs and more sophisticated time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to investigate the conduct of China’s monetary policy, considering the maintenance of exchange rate stability. Compared to monetary base and various interest rates, M2 is the most relevant policy instrument in stimulating output, stemming inflation, and mitigating RMB appreciation pressure. M2 growth promotes output growth while fights inflation more aggressively. The application of TVP-VAR-SV reveals significant time-varying nature of both the macroeconomic environment and the behavior of monetary policy over time. Particularly, the declining volatility of output gap indicates enhancing effectiveness of monetary policy in narrowing output gap and thus stabilizing the real economy. The inclusion of exchange rate provides more rationale for the observed behavior of monetary policy.
　　六、主办单位
　　开云手机版经济开云手机版